It was two months prior that Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while his coach berated him for not reading a through-ball. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, the question was if his displays were an indicator or the reason of the side's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. After the in-form star curled home his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their opening six fixtures, now sit only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?
It remains a particularly tough question to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, even as the wins have piled up.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa posted an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a side which has put together a ten-match winning streak, they appear strangely fragile – but right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping Rogers to bail them out with two clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it occurred in London, and once more versus United.
Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. Against United, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge the club will encounter in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality where, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he showed in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would be in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought the midfielder now would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.
