Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Serious Obstacles in the Selection Procedure
A number of figures on the party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.