Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
