‘A Critical Scenario’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Availability.
The shockwaves of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now being felt in India's households.
As aerial attacks on Iran impede energy shipments through the vital shipping lane, stocks of kitchen fuel are dwindling across India, pushing restaurants to shorten food lists, reduce operating times and in some cases cease operations entirely.
Social media is awash with video clips showing crowds outside LPG distributors across Indian cities and towns as anxieties over fuel supplies spread. Restaurant kitchens appear the worst hit: the most severe shortage is in commercial eateries.
"The state of affairs is alarming. Cooking gas simply is unavailable," says a representative of the a major restaurant body.
Most restaurants run either on business-grade gas tanks or piped gas, and the scarcities are now being noticed across the country. "Many restaurants have shut down - some in northern India, many in the southern states. People are adopting traditional burners and electronic appliances to keep kitchens going."
Localized Effects
In Mumbai, accounts say up to a significant portion of hotels and restaurants are already completely or partially closed as business fuel stocks dwindle. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some establishments say their cylinder inventory have depleted with little backup. "We can only make coffee and no food items - it is truly dismal. Operations will be impacted," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.
Restaurant operators are rushing to adjust. "Menus are being curtailed, some are opening only for dinner and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are varying as supplies wax and wane. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a changing landscape."
Retailers report a spike in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are selling out quickly.
Government Stance
Yet, the officials maintains there is sufficient stock.
India has more than 30 crore home fuel subscribers and spokespersons say stocks are being reallocated to households as conflict-related stress from the Middle East conflict ripple through energy markets.
About a majority of India's LPG is imported, and about 90% of those shipments pass through the key maritime route, the vital passage now effectively closed by the conflict.
The petroleum ministry says that it directed refineries to increase LPG output for home needs, enhancing domestic production by about a significant margin. Commercial stock is being prioritised for critical services such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".
"A degree of anxious stocking and accumulation has been sparked by false reports. The standard supply timeline for home fuel remains about two-and-a-half days," says a government spokesperson.
Widening Concern
Now the concern is spreading beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of scooters outside a gas outlet. "Concern is genuine," the text reads.
According to reports from market experts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be premature.
India imports almost all of its oil. Around half of its petroleum shipments - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Middle Eastern nations.
Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the shortfall could be partly compensated for by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a industry commentator.
Based on maritime intelligence and expert analysis, additional Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, reducing India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.
"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.
Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern
The primary concern is kitchen fuel, analysts say.
India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the Strait.
Refineries can modify output to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only increase domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.
In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be partially mitigated through alternative sourcing. Processed petroleum stocks remains relatively comfortable. LPG availability is the real variable to watch in the coming weeks."
What may be intensifying the concern on the ground is not just limited availability but erratic supply chains - and the common threat of hoarding.
An industry representative claims opportunistic profiteering.
"Suppliers are taking advantage of the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold at a premium."
For now, India's petroleum stocks may be protected by international market dynamics. But in homes across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next gas canister.